2015 “most lethal year” for terrorist violence in Europe in a decade

2015 was the most lethal year for terrorist violence in Europe in nearly a decade, according to a new report from Aon Risk Solutions, the global risk management business of Aon.

The annual Terrorism and Political Violence Map found that terrorists are increasingly target private citizens and public gatherings. This marks the first net increase in global terrorism risk ratings since 2013, with the risk ratings of 18 countries experiencing an increase and 13 countries seeing a decrease, according to the data.

For the first time since Aon and The Risk Advisory Group jointly began collecting empirical data to create the map in 2007, shootings have overtaken bombings in the western world, while the targeting of civilians in public spaces has become more commonplace. Since January 2015, nearly one-third (31 percent) of all attacks in the western world targeted private citizens and public gatherings.

The global threat posed by Islamic State dominates many of the map findings this year, as the group entered a more aggressive phase of mounting mass casualty attacks in 2015 and early 2016, with the United States, France, Turkey and Belgium all affected. The terrorist organisation’s activities have contributed to sustaining or increasing risk levels in more than a dozen countries worldwide.

Far-right activism as well as civil unrest risks stemming from the European migrant crisis and the increasing influence of extremist parties have also driven rating increases.

“Our 2016 map demonstrates increasing regional instability and a growing spectrum of potential risks,” said Scott Bolton, director in crisis management at Aon Risk Solutions.

He added: “The threats highlighted in the map should encourage business leaders with global footprints to adopt a more strategic risk management approach to limit the impact of attacks on their people, operations and assets. Understanding how they are exposed to the peril is key to achieving this outcome.”

Henry Wilkinson, head of intelligence and analysis at The Risk Advisory Group, which has collaborated with Aon to produce the Terrorism and Political Violence map since 2007, also said that the most business-threatening political violence risks continue to emerge from war and sudden changes in government control, such as those which occur through coups d’état.

He said: “These are less manageable risks and our findings flag several countries where there is heightened probability of both. Businesses need to be flexible and robust in how they anticipate and manage risks in the fluid world the map depicts.

“This requires actionable assessments that take both a strategic and a more detailed operational view of the markets in which they seek to thrive.”