15 April 2013 News

Brace yourselves for an active hurricane season

The reinsurance industry should prepare for an active US hurricane season this year, according to analysis released by Colorado State University (CSU).

Early indications suggest that the US could be hit with nine hurricanes – four of which are expected to be major – and 18 named storms along coastal regions during the season which runs from June to the end of November.

The report, by Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, suggests a combination of an unusually warm tropical Atlantic and a relatively low likelihood of El Niño – the atmospheric force that inhibits storm formation ­– across the Caribbean Sea and tropical north Atlantic are responsible for the forecast.

“The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely,” said the report.

The forecast is based on a new extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed utilising 29 years of past data.

A further forecast by Weatherbell’s Joe Bastardi suggests that “2013 will see hurricane activity shift back to the traditional paths seen in seasons such as 2004 and 2005, with hurricanes tracking a little further south than in 2012”.

Weatherbell also highlights the northern Gulf of Mexico to the east coast of Florida as the highest landfall risk area for hurricanes in its analysis.

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