Guy Carp unveils updated probabilistic European hail model


Broker Guy Carpenter has completed the final phase in the development of its probabilistic European hail model. 

The enhancements to the G-CAT hail model include an expansion on the number of countries it will cover, to include Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Spain and Switzerland.

Guy Carpenter released the first probabilistic hail model for Austria, Germany, Italy, Poland and Slovenia in 2014.

In addition to extending its geographical coverage, the updated model also incorporates an improved event set generation methodology. The hail database, which underpins the model, has also been enhanced with the inclusion of additional claims data from insurers across the modelled territories.

The model produces historic hail tracks using a global lightning detection system, LINET, and algorithms developed by atmospheric research firm nowcast GmbH.

Mark Weatherhead, head of catastrophe model development at Guy Carpenter, said: “The new technique is based on the hail footprints developed from nine years of historic lightning data.

“This new event set accurately reproduces hail event frequency and intensity by month shown by historic data and is corroborated by evidence from scientific literature on the subject.”

Max Strasser, project leader for the G-CAT hail model, added: “Hailstorm events in Europe have accounted for some of the largest losses in the region in recent years. Most recently, we witnessed the impact of hail and windstorm Ela which affected a number of countries, including Germany, France, Belgium and Austria, and generated hailstones in excess of seven centimeters in diameter (2.8 inches).

“By providing this pioneering probabilistic hail model and extending its geographical reach we hope to greatly expand our understanding of these catastrophic events.”

Matthew Eagle, head of international analytics for Guy Carpenter, added: “Our G-CAT hail model offers our clients a unique means to identify their potential accumulations of insured risks exposed to hail at both a country-level as well as across their entire European portfolio.

“The advances in the model demonstrate once again how Guy Carpenter is constantly seeking ways to expand the boundaries of what is possible in terms of modelling capabilities and enhancing the level of service delivery to its clients.”

Guy Carpenter, Mark Weatherhead, Max Strasser, Matthew Eagle, North America, Europe

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