Haiyan losses could reach $700m
Losses from Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines could be between $500 and $700 according to Willis Re.
“This estimate is based on detailed wind speed data from a range of sources that allowed Willis Re to derive a wind field map for the storm,” said Richard Sanders, executive director at Willis Re Singapore. “We combined this wind field with our view of exposure and vulnerability from published academic sources to calculate the market loss.”
Catastrophe modelling firm AIR Worldwide estimates a similar figure, which is relatively low compared with the estimated total economic losses stemming from damage to residential, commercial, and agricultural properties, which is estimated between $6.5 and $14.5 billion.
“As many of the exposures in the affected regions are uninsured or underinsured, potential post-catastrophe insurance recoveries are likely to be a relatively small proportion of economic losses,” said Sanders.
“Whilst anecdotally, premium volume is growing faster than in many other regions of the world, the Philippines still has one of the lowest insurance penetration rates. Current estimates indicate that Haiyan will be counted as one of most the most significant storms in recent times for the Philippines, however it is too early to state with any certainty how much of the damage will end up as recoveries in the reinsurance market.”
Haiyan, which made landfall on the southern tip of Samar Island early morning local time on November 8 left over 2,000 people dead and displaced more than 650,000 people.
“Super Typhoon Haiyan is one of the most powerful tropical cyclones in modern record-keeping,” said Dr. Peter Sousounis, senior principal scientist at AIR Worldwide. “The storm maintained impressive wind speeds as it traversed the Philippines before exiting over the cooler waters of the South China Sea, where it weakened as it headed northwest.
“The islands of Leyte, Samar, and northern Cebu are among the worst affected areas. Tacloban City, the capital and biggest city (population of 220,000) of Leyte province was particularly hard hit as storm surge depths as high as 4 meters destroyed every coastal home and left many inland neighbourhoods inundated with floodwaters.”
Estimating accurate insured loss estimates has been challenging given that no known anemometers – used for ascertaining the storm’s exact strength at landfall – survived the storm.
According to AIR, many inland residential and commercial buildings were destroyed and the tiny peninsula where the Tacloban airport was once located was levelled, leaving only the runway. Nearly every tree in the city was either flattened or snapped in half, which has blocked roads both in and around the city. Guiuan, a municipality located very close to where the typhoon made landfall, was also left in ruins.
