Impact Forecasting launches first East Africa earthquake model
Aon Benfield’s catastrophe model development centre, Impact Forecasting, has launched the first catastrophe model for the East Africa region.
The model quantifies the financial impact of earthquakes and in turn allows insurers and reinsurers to gain a better understanding of their exposures in this growing market.
The model is developed using the latest earthquake data from local and international experts, including the University of Pretoria Natural Hazard Centre Africa.
To assess the impact of the hazard against the building resilience, the model analyses over 500,000 events against three occupancies (residential, commercial and industrial) and 24 structural types including three height and age categories. Portfolios can be modelled using CRESTA and State administrative levels.
“The African economies are growing pretty fast and so will insurance penetration in the region,” said Simon Chikumbu, CEO of Aon Benfield Africa. “Insurers and reinsurers in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda are therefore seeking a greater understanding of the seismic risk in the region. This is to gain greater knowledge and better insights of their exposure and enable better decisions on matters such as capital, risk pricing and reinsurance requirements Up to now very little scientific research has been put into action in such a model to understand this risk in the region.”
Chris Ewing, catastrophe model developer at Impact Forecasting, added: “The East Africa earthquake model is an important addition to Impact Forecasting’s African Earthquake platform, which also includes South Africa and the Maghreb region. Impact Forecasting is committed to supporting our clients and catalysing their growth in the right direction, with the right tools in regions where no other modelling solutions exist.”
