Impact Forecasting offers new windstorm model
Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe model development unit of Aon Benfield, has launched a new European windstorm model. Windstorm is the number one peril in Europe, causing the highest annual insured losses, according to the broker.
The model offers an alternative view on this peak zone peril, something the company said will enable insurers to gain a better understanding of the possible losses, including the effects of storm clustering.
The development involved three years of collaborative research with the department of meteorology and climatology at the University of Cologne, an Aon Benfield research partner, to incorporate the latest peer reviewed scientific research into the model.
The windstorm model covers Belgium, France, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Luxemburg, Netherlands and the UK.
Adam Podlaha, global head of Impact Forecasting, said: “Windstorm is the most damaging peril in Europe so bringing an additional view on the risk – and new insight into the financial impact of clustering – is invaluable to the market. In line with the proposed Solvency II regulatory framework, Impact Forecasting’s transparent approach to catastrophe modelling means insurers can develop and truly own their view of risk.
“The model runs on our open architecture modelling platform ELEMENTS which, in response to insurers’ evolving needs, delivers the capabilities to customise individual model components or quantify uncertainty.”
The company lists a number of differentiating features of the model and benefits for insurers. It incorporates the latest insights from climate research to better understand the maximum possible loss from a single windstorm event or a clustering of events on an annual basis that may impact reinsurance protection under the treaty, the company said.
It allows customised modelling based on an individual insurer’s portfolio, for example using insurance claims to modify the damage component of the model. This achieves a better representation of the insurer’s risk, the firm said.
New events can be added to the model to forecast losses for ongoing or hypothetical events.
Alexandros Georgiadis, climatologist and catastrophe model developer at Impact Forecasting, explained: "Due to short historical records and the comparatively smaller number of annual significant European windstorms – 2.5 per year on long term average – it remains challenging to quantify the frequency of historical extreme events, and thus of seasonal clustering, from observations alone.
“In order to solve this, a large set of global climate models (GCM) simulations, run with set ups consistent with current climate conditions, are explored to strongly enlarge the data sample to over 4600 years and thus to provide better estimates of event-based and cumulative losses. Our approach preserves the clustering as simulated by the GCM, thus enabling a more accurate and physically-based definition of loss clustering and frequency."
The next phase of model development will see the addition of Central Europe and Scandinavia. The windstorm model builds on Impact Forecasting’s European model suite including flood and earthquake.
