Guy Carpenter examines growing wildfire threat in new report
Guy Carpenter has released a briefing that assesses wildfire risk in the US, a peril which it describes as a growing threat to properties.
The briefing, US Wildfire: An Ever-Present Hazard, provides insight into the threat of wildfires in the US as well as risk mitigation strategies and portfolio modelling for this peril.
The wildfire threat in the summer of 2015 was amplified by a strong ridge of high pressure that created very hot and dry conditions in the western US, the report said. More than 9.27 million acres were burned by wildfires up to October 8, as compared to the 10-year average of around 6.3 million acres, according to data from the National Interagency Fire Center.
“Wildfire is a significant peril impacting insurers in the US each year. Preliminary data indicates that 2015 insured losses from wildfires may approach or exceed $1.75 billion. Guy Carpenter works with our clients to evaluate their exposure and to deliver a comprehensive wildfire risk management solution,” said Tim Gardner, CEO of US Operations.
Dr James Waller, research meteorologist for Guy Carpenter, added: “Wildfires are a complex peril due to a number of varying prediction factors such as temperature, rainfall deficit and wind conditions.
“As winter approaches, a strong El Niño should bring much-needed rainfall to most of California and the Southwest, but the Northwest is likely to continue to experience dry conditions through the winter.”
Sherry Thomas, head of catastrophe management–Americas, Guy Carpenter, added: “Wildfire continues to be a growing threat to properties in the US and a risk that does not appear to be diminishing,” she said.
“In response, Guy Carpenter has continued to innovate the capabilities of our modelling solutions, through which we can offer detailed estimations of annual burn probability for insurer portfolios, probabilistic modelling and real-time monitoring of current wildfire events across the continental US.”
