Violent conflict could become the norm: Willis
Broker Willis has warned that violent conflict between competing interests could become the norm, with up to three quarters of the global population expected to live in cities over the next thirty years.
Tim Holt, head of intelligence at Willis’s special contingency risks (SCR), explained that there are a number of reasons for this.
“Firstly, because much of this urbanisation will take place rapidly and without regulation in developing and sometimes fragile states – such as in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America,” he said.
He added that the ‘mega-city’ may supplant ‘mother state’ national governance whilst unable itself to govern at the city level and that this will in an unprecedented era of ‘connectedness’ for all including criminals and insurgents.
“Add to this other factors such as the fact that much of this growth will be crammed into often vulnerable coastal or earthquake prone areas and we have grounds for friction and conflict.”
Holt added: “Where politics and crime are entwined, the rich self-fortify to avoid massive ungoverned slums and violent extremists recruit hide and fight from ungoverned space, the concept of the fragile city (mirroring many of the vulnerabilities of the fragile state) is increasingly plausible in the eyes of many humanitarian and security commentators.
“This is not to claim that all mega-cities will become in part or completely failed city-states. However, where governance is already weak the development of these sprawling cities will bring substantial problems in terms of averting insecurity and violence.”
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