Q1 insured nat cat losses hit $20bn, convective storms dominate again

Insured losses from Q1 nat cat activity likely totalled some $20 billion, just 10% above the ten-year average even as total economic losses fell short of the decadal average, analysts at Gallagher Re have claimed. 

“The preliminary view of insured losses during Q1 2024 showed a slightly higher than average total, but it was largely a manageable start to the year for the insurance industry,” analysts said of the preliminary estimate of $20 billion.

Two major events topped the $3 billion mark:  a US severe convective storm outbreak in mid-March and the January 1 earthquake on the Noto peninsula in Japan. 

By peril, severe convective storms topped the rankings again. Insured losses exceeded $11 billion, chiefly in the US. Hail was again the primary sub-peril, driving the bulk of the insured costs across the central and eastern portions of the US.

Winter weather ranked second at neighbourhood $3 billion alongside earthquake, also near the $3 billion mark. An active European windstorm season blew over with little ado. 

By geography, the US accounted for the lion’s share yet again at $15 billion or 75% of the global total and with warning that loss development could yet push the US accounting higher.   

Climate and weather related disasters accounted for $31 billion, some 72% of the total economic losses across all natural catastrophes. That sum is roughly half the costly prior year period and 28% off the ten-year average. 

But Q2 and Q3 bring the true wild cards into play, Gallagher Re reminds, with the US severe convective storm season heating up and the Atlantic windstorm season on the horizon. 

The outlook for a harsh hurricane season “bears close watching, particularly as primary carriers are already responding to a difficult US market,” analysts wrote.

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