Atlantic hurricane season takes more sinister shape; CSU ups forecast
The Atlantic Hurricane season is looking ever more dangerous, with the chances of the US coastlines being battered by at least one major hurricane landfall now up to 76%, a key research institute has claimed.
“We have increased our forecast and now call for a well above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2022,” researchers at Colorado State University’s Tropical Weather & Climate Research department said in an update to their 2022 forecasts.
CSU has upped forecasts for the season on all metrics versus preliminary estimates issued April 7, CSU now expects 20 named storms (vs 19 prior) across 95 days (90). The group expects 10 hurricanes (9) including 5 major hurricanes (4).
Adjusted for one standard-deviation uncertainty, CSU puts the named storm count in a range of 17 to 23, the hurricane count in a range of 8 to 12 and the major hurricane count in a range of 3 to 7.
The chance of major hurricane landfall anywhere on the US continental coastline is now a full 76%, above the 71% chance initial forecast and the 52% rate noted over the past century.
That breaks down to a 51% chance (47% prior) for landfall of a major hurricane on the US east coast including the Florida peninsula (31% average over past century) and a 50% chance (46%) on the gulf coast including the Florida Panhandle (30 average).
The CSU model is based on five statistical forecasting schemes, averaged and then adjusted for factors not explicitly covered in any of the base models.
All five of the schemes call for above-average Atlantic hurricane activity this year and all five rendered measurements in June above those from the April reading.
In its conclusion on drivers: “We anticipate that either cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña conditions will predominate over the next several months. Sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are above normal, while most of the subtropical and mid-latitude eastern North Atlantic is much warmer than normal.”
The updated report follows hot on the heels of forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center pointing to 14-21 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes.
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