Atlantic still favours heavy hurricane season despite slow start: NOAA

Conditions still favour an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, despite the record slow start, NOAA Climate Prediction Center meteorologist Scott Handel told the agency’s September climate teleconference.

“Given the ongoing La Niña conditions, we still favour an above-normal season for the Atlantic,” Handel said when asked about low levels of activity to date in the Atlantic.

“We are still within the hurricane season,” Handel said. “We still have a lot of the hurricane season left to go.”

The tendency for La Niña conditions to reduce the wind shear that might otherwise hinder cyclone formation merits continued vigilance.

“We should still keep our guard up; La Niña tends to favour Atlantic hurricane activity.”

When NOAA gurus last read the tea leaves early August, they gave a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a light downward tweak from the 65% chance as seen in May.

But then the Atlantic failed to deliver a single tropical storm in August. Tropical storm Danielle, later Hurricane Danielle, put an end to a nearly two-month cyclone drought, but travelled an anomalous course in the North Atlantic. Earl followed in short order and only ever neared Bermuda. The September 10 season peak went by without a single Atlantic cyclone until Fiona appeared overnight September 14.

NOAA last predicted a named storm count of 14-20 for the season, leaving a minimum of eight to go to hit the forecast range. The hurricane forecast range of 6 to 10 will require another four.

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