Climate change is making flood maps irrelevant – but insurers are responding

Traditional flood mapping that uses historical records of rainfall, river flow and flood levels, is rapidly becoming outdated and irrelevant because of the impact of climate change, according to Paul Drury, data manager at specialist flood modeler Ambiental.

Projections from the UK Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs along with the Met Office suggest that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activity will increase temperatures, and therefore rainfall in the future.

The industry is using new technology and other innovations to tackle this challenge, four of which he detailed in an interview with Intelligent Insurer. The full version of can be found here.

He noted that one example of where past records have not always been reliable was seen during the Cumbria flood of 2014 and 2015, where observed rainfall had exceed all previously recorded values in certain locations, leading to more flooding than expected.

“Relatively short historic records cannot always take account of the most extreme weather events and therefore traditional flood maps might be under-predicting the flood hazard,” Drury said.

Drury suggested that instances like these become increasingly important when considering long-term decisions relating to land use, planning and infrastructure.

He continued: “Insurers may also want to consider future flood hazards when designing longer term underwriting strategies and appraising potential accumulations of risk.”

In response to this issue, data modelers are starting to run thousands of different future weather simulations, generating predictions under different emission scenarios in order to give as range of estimates.

For more details on some of the technologies being employed to tackle the developing issue of flood risk, click here.

Today’s top stories

Cat losses hit CCR but open market reinsurance unit drives growth

ILS tipped for record year despite slower Q1

Ogden change will mean one-off shock to profits for reinsurers

Szakmary resigns as CEO of Blue Capital; successor revealed

Ed hires Howden exec as chairman of property/casualty unit

Did you enjoy reading this story?  Sign up to our free daily newsletters and get stories like this sent straight to your inbox.