Coronavirus may be a black swan like no other – Moody’s

A coronavirus pandemic would be even more of a “black swan” than the global financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008-2009, credit ratings agency Moody’s has said.

“Unlike the US home mortgage meltdown, no one predicted the early 2020 arrival of a potentially devastating pandemic. And unlike the financial crisis, public health and economic policymakers may be limited regarding their ability to remedy or offset a 1918 (or Spanish flu) type pandemic,” it said in its weekly market outlook.

Moody’s Analytics’ industrial metals price index has plunged in response to the risks posed by the possible spread of the coronavirus.

“To a considerable degree, the latest bout of industrial metals price deflation stems from China’s outsized influence on global industrial activity,” said Moody’s. “January 29’s base metals price index was the lowest since June 2017. Thus, this often-reliable barometer of global industrial activity fared better during the worst of the US/China trade dispute that came to the forefront in June 2018.”

Expectations of a quickening by world growth to 3.3 percent in 2020 are now being challenged by the unknown course of the coronavirus.