Expect above-average ‘more intense’ hurricane season this year: Allianz
The hurricane season in the Atlantic basin officially starts on June 1, with forecasters expecting an above-average frequency of storms that will become “wetter and more intense, causing more physical damage”, catastrophe risk experts from Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS) and Allianz Re have warned.
The predictions are based on the insurer’s projections and the early assessments of international hurricane forecasting institutes in its annual hurricane season outlook.
The 2022 hurricane season is expected to be above the 1991-2020 average, with 14-21 tropical storms and six to 10 hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes, according to the latest forecasts cited by Allianz. The last six hurricane seasons have been characterised by above-average activity and this trend is likely to continue this year.
Allianz stated that in order to minimise losses in the event of a hurricane, businesses need to develop and implement a comprehensive crisis plan, including actions to take before, during, and after a storm.
Businesses in exposed areas are advised to regularly update their emergency plan, which should cover areas such as training, assembling emergency supplies, business continuity, buildings inspections, anchoring or relocating equipment and stock, and protecting windows.
“Businesses need to prepare themselves for the prospect of another above-average hurricane season this year,” said Thomas Varney, head of risk consulting, North America at AGCS. “Obviously, windstorms cannot be prevented from occurring. However, loss can be greatly minimized by adequate preparation before a storm arrives. The development and implementation of a comprehensive windstorm emergency plan should be a number one priority for those companies who don’t already have this in place.”
The 2021 hurricane season was the third most active season on record, as well as the third costliest after 2017 and 2005, with a total of 21 named storms, of which seven were hurricanes (four reached a major hurricane status). In late August, Hurricane Ida caused widespread damage in the Caribbean before devastating the coast of Louisiana, generating record rainfall in various locations, and flash flooding in the north-east US, resulting in insured losses of $36billion.
“The main factors contributing to an above-average hurricane season in 2021 included La Niña, above-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) early in the season, and above-average West African Monsoon rainfall,” explained AGCS catastrophe risk research analyst Mabé Villar Vega.
The report also highlighted that while there’s no clear consensus on whether manmade climate change is increasing hurricane frequency, scientists believe that climate change will make hurricanes wetter, increasing the risk of flooding. Additionally, the strength of a storm will become harder to predict as they intensify in a short space of time.
Bastian Manz, senior climate risk analyst at Allianz Re, explained: “There is no clear scientific consensus on whether climate change will result in a net increase in the frequency of tropical storms. However, there is more certainty that high-intensity storms will become more frequent, indicating the potential for greater wind and storm surge damage.”
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Center is contemplating moving the start date of Atlantic hurricane seasons to May 15 due to the extension of hurricane activity in recent years. The move is due partly to manmade global warming which has increased the atmospheric temperature, and the development of advanced observational technologies, which can identify weaker storms that never come close to any landmass, adding to tropical storm counts.
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