Hurricane Irma may hit the US

Currently a category 3 hurricane, Irma is increasingly likely to make landfall in the US, according to research by broker JLT Re.

Irma is projected to pass close to the northeastern Caribbean islands and eventually the Bahamas over the next 5-6 days. Irma is expected to grow in size over the next seven days. As a result, very large waves and storm surge in the Bahamas is increasingly the first major impact of this hurricane.

Conditions look favourable for maintaining major hurricane strength with Category 4 or even rare Category 5 strength possible as the hurricane passes over sea surface temperatures well above average while wind shear will be below normal this coming week.

The likelihood of a US landfall is shifting slightly higher, according to JTL Re. Overall, odds slightly favour a US landfall vs. curving out to sea, but both outcomes are distinctly possible at this lead time. The broker places a 55-60 percent possibility of US landfall while a 40-45 percent likelihood of recurving out to sea.

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