Lloyd’s tips German World Cup win based on insurable value

Lloyd’s has predicted that based on insurable value, Germany has the most expensive team competing in the 2014 FIFA World Cup.

In association with the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), Lloyd’s has released research that ranks each team in the FIFA World Cup based on the collective insurable value of each country’s players. The total collective value is estimated at £6.2 billion (€7.7 billion/$10.5 billion).

Cebr used players’ wages and endorsement incomes, alongside a collection of additional indicators, to construct an economic model which estimates players’ incomes until retirement. These projections formed the basis for assessing insurable values by player age, playing position and nationality.

The research was supported by Sporting Intelligence, who provided anonymised footballer salary data for each of the 32 teams participating in the 2014 FIFA World Cup, after the finalisation of their 23-man squads.

A snapshot of the research shows that Germany, Spain, England and Brazil have the four most expensive teams in terms of insurable value and that the average insurable value of one England player is more than the entire Costa Rican team.

It also indicates that Group G is the toughest group – with a combined insurable value of £1.2 billion and Group C is the easiest group – with a combined insurable value of £340 million.

And finally, taking the groups into account, Lloyd’s predicts a Germany v Spain final.

Marco Castro from Lloyd’s Brazil, said: “It is incredible to see how much some of the teams playing in Rio are worth – the top three, Germany, Spain and England - are worth more than £1.7 billion collectively. This is more than the bottom 20 teams combined.

“The predicted insurable values also clearly show which groups should be trickier to qualify from than others – and it’s far from a level playing field!”