RMS launches new HD wildfire risk model for US

Risk modelling and analytics firm RMS has unveiled a new model for addressing wildfire risk across the United States, claiming it to be the "most comprehensive solution" in the market.

The new RMS US Wildfire HD Model offers an improvement on zoning and mapping products currently used by the re/insurers to evaluate wildfire risk.

The risk modeller said that existing methods can fail to account for structural vulnerabilities, are unable to highlight areas susceptible to urban conflagrations, coarse resolution, and lack probability based insight.

The new model, it said, captures the full impact of wildfire at high resolution to enable an "unprecedented understanding of the complex behaviours" that characterise fire spread, ember accumulation, and smoke dispersion. It offers a more granular and comprehensive approach to underwriting and portfolio management.

“The past five years have demonstrated that the industry needs better ways to manage their wildfire risk comprehensively: for underwriting, for reinsurance purchasing, and for capital management,” said Chris Folkman, senior director of product management at RMS.

“After three consecutive seasons with major cat events, it’s clear that wildfire needs to be treated more like a peak peril and less like a simple matter of attritional loss. Wildfire risk has a steep gradient, where different houses in the same neighbourhood can have drastically different risk profiles. We’re confident our analytics can equip property writers to price, underwrite, and deploy capital with precision – for any contiguous US location.”

To build the model, RMS said it partnered with top insurers, mitigation experts, and government agencies to ensure that the model’s data, calibration, and scope addresses market gaps.

Since 2014, devastating wildfires have unleashed more than $30 billion in claims and five of the 10 most destructive wildfires ever have occurred in the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

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