US hurricane storm damages may exceed $1.5tr in 2017: CoreLogic
Nearly 6.9 million US homes along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are at potential risk of damage from hurricane storm surge inundation with a total reconstruction cost value (RCV) of more than $1.5 trillion, according to a new report by US data analytics company CoreLogic.
The storm predictions indicate that the 2017 hurricane season will see fewer storms than both 2016 and the 30-year average. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts 12 total storms, six of which will develop into hurricanes, and three of those are predicted to be Category 3 or higher.
"Despite the fact that this year's hurricane season is predicted to have fewer storms than last year, it doesn't mitigate the risk of storm surge damage," said Tom Jeffery, senior hazard scientist at CoreLogic.
"As we've seen with past storms, even one single hurricane at a lower-level category can cause significant damage if it makes landfall in a highly populated area."
According to the 2017 Storm Surge Report, at the regional level, the Atlantic Coast has 3.9 million homes at risk of storm surge with an RCV of $970 billion, and the Gulf Coast has just under 3 million homes at risk with $593 billion in potential exposure to total destruction damage.
At the state level, Texas and Florida – which have the longest coastal areas – consistently have more homes at risk than other states. Again this year, as in previous years, Florida ranks first with just under 2.8 million at-risk homes across the five risk categories, and Texas ranks third with 536,000 at-risk homes.
Since the number of homes at risk strongly correlates with the accompanying RCV, these two states rank first and fifth, respectively, for having the largest RCV. States with less coastal exposure but lower-lying elevations that extend farther inland, such as Louisiana (ranked second at 808,000 at-risk homes) and New Jersey (ranked fourth at almost 470,000 at-risk homes), tend to have more total homes at risk because of the potential for surge water to travel farther inland. Louisiana and New Jersey are also near the top of the list for RCV, with Louisiana totalling almost $181 billion (ranked second) and New Jersey totalling $140 billion (ranked fourth).
At the local level, 15 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) account for 67.3 percent of the 6.9 million total at-risk homes and 68.6 percent of the total $1.56 trillion RCV. This disproportionate distribution of homes suggests that the location of hurricanes that make landfall is often a more important factor than the number of storms that may occur during the year.
The Miami CBSA, which includes Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, has the most homes at risk totalling almost 785,000 with an RCV of $143 billion. By comparison, the New York City CBSA has slightly fewer homes at risk at 723,000, but a significantly higher total RCV totalling $264 billion due to the greater home values and high construction costs in this area.
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