Earthquake catastrophe modelling: meeting the challenges


Goran Trendafiloski

A combination of recent events and scientific advances means that it is a dynamic time for earthquake catastrophe modelling, with changes occurring rapidly, as Dr Goran Trendafiloski of Aon Benfield’s Impact Forecasting team explains.

Earthquake catastrophe modelling today faces many challenges, not least in response to the recent events in Chile, New Zealand and Japan. The need for frequent updates of existing models considering the new scientific developments and loss data from recent events is particularly important for the territories with large insured portfolios.

Equally, there is increasing demand to cover territories and portfolios not considered so far, in addition to the creation of regional models to account for possible trans-boundary effects, the inclusion of nonmodelled perils (earthquake-triggered tsunamis), the quantification of cumulative risk in case of consecutive events and the quantification of life-risk.

Lessons learned

Catastrophe modelling, Europe, Aon Benfield, Earthquake

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