5 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane predicted for upcoming season

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) predicts 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major (Category 3+) hurricane between the months of June and November of 2018.

This is a slight upward revision from TSR’s last major forecast update in late May but still projects a below average season, according to Aon Benfield Impact Forecasting.

Several factors point to a “below average season,” according to the researchers. Among these are higher than normal trade winds across the tropical North Atlantic as well as the current sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in the tropical Atlantic.

TSR’s Professor Mark Saunders and Dr. Adam Leacurrently project that there is just an 8 percent probability that the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season ACE Index will be above-average, a 33 percent likelihood it will be near-normal, and a 59 percent chance it will be below normal.

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