Human behaviour critical to pandemic and cyber modeling, says CyberCube report

A new report by CyberCube suggests that understanding and predicting human behaviour is one of the biggest challenges facing modelers of both pandemics and cyber risk.

The report, backed by Munich Re and pandemic modeling firm Metabiota, focuses on understanding the lessons both pandemic and cyber modelers could learn from each other.

“It’s clear that lessons can be learnt and applied to cyber risk modeling from understanding how pandemic models have evolved," said Oli Brew, CyberCube’s head of client success. "As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, even though there are differences between computer and human viruses, parallels are emerging in the modeling, the methodologies and the data challenges.”

“There is real value in learning from interdisciplinary teams in how to balance the needs of accuracy and precision in developing models to meet the market needs. At a minimum, the need for a creative, but reality-based imagination to represent forward-looking risks is critical.”

The report found that the ways in which modelers represent the complex interactions between human-created risks will be key to building effective models.

It also found that lack of data hinders the progress for both types of modelers.

The report concludes that addressing current limitations in data collection will improve the value and insight these models can provide to the insurance and life insurance markets.

Hjalmar Böhm, senior actuary, Epidemic Risk Solutions, a dedicated epidemic risk solutions business unit at Munich Re, said: “In both cyber risk and pandemics, there is a need to consider accumulation risk. For example, a pandemic is a key consideration for life insurers and a high mortality event could create significant economic loss. A solid approach to controlling accumulation risk exposure needs to be the basis for every business model for epidemic risk insurance.”

Nita Madhav, CEO of Metabiota, added: “There are parallels with modeling the global spread of a disease and how cyber systems are connected - both are network issues. The impact of mitigation risk and early action can potentially make a difference. Furthermore, you can be asymptomatic with COVID-19; similarly, you may not know if a cyber intruder has already infiltrated your network.”