Italy’s May floods could bear insurance bill upwards of €1bn: Guy Carpenter

Mid-May flooding in the northern Italian region of Emilia-Romagna likely rendered insured losses in excess of €500 million and could rise to the €1 billion mark,  Guy Carpenter has said.

Flood footprints garnered post-event from Geospatial Insight, Copernicus, JBA and RMS “varied greatly” by topography and demographics, Guy Carpenter said.

Plugging that into the Guy Carpenter GCAT model delivered client results ranging from a 5-to-10-year return period to 20-to-35-year return period, with the median around a 10-to-20 years.

Adding in likely motor vehicle losses add an additional 10-15% to the tally. Crop losses remain too difficult to assess, but “may be substantial.”

Flood coverage penetration is an issue. Nationwide, less than 5% of all housing units had added flood coverage, albeit more heavily concentrated in the north than the Italian south. Among commercial clients, coverage varies by size, from above 90% for large enterprises down to about 3% for micro firms. About 15% of motor policies include protection against any type of natural catastrophe.

The mid-May floods hit the lower Emilia-Romagna region from Modena to Rimini, rendering 14 fatalities and 36,000 evacuations / relocations. Bologna was heavily inundated along with other inland and coastal cities along the Adriatic.

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