North Atlantic gathers drivers for increasingly mild hurricane season

The North Atlantic will likely generate 12 tropical storms in 2023, including six hurricanes of which 2 may achieve intense status, the UK government-supported research venture Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has said.

The preliminary estimate for storm counts would fall visibly below the 10-year climate norm for 16.3 per season and the 30-year climate norm for 14.4.

Accumulated storm activity, estimated at a likely reading of 84 in 2023, should fall 25-30% below the 1991-2020 30-year climate norm as two key elements in the model point to hurricane suppression for the season, analysts wrote.

Consensus estimates for cooler than normal North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and stronger than normal July-September trade winds over the Caribbean both speak to reduced storm frequency and intensity, researchers note.

Reduced to the North Atlantic tropics only, TSR expects six tropical storms, of which four can hit hurricane strength.

Reduced to storms with a likely US landfall from Texas through Maine, researchers preliminarily say to expect three tropical storms, including one hurricane.

Researchers warn of relatively low accuracy to forecasts that can be rendered in April for factors that will end up being determinant in August-September.

In an early view out already in December 2022, TSR had said it expected a below-average blow of 13 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes as ongoing storm-supportive La Niña conditions fade away after a several year run.

The Atlantic has delivered “near or below average” seasons for the two prior times when La Niña has occurred three times in succession, report authors noted at the time.

The next TSR forecast update for the 2023 North Atlantic hurricane season will be a pre-season forecast issued on Tuesday May 30, 2023.

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