Asia Pac to face up to 20 cyclones by November
Asia Pacific could see 19.9 tropical cyclone formations between June and November, 2015, according to the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC) – a joint initiative of the City University of Hong Kong and Guy Carpenter.
The region is currently experiencing El Niño conditions that are predicted, via the GCACIC Regional Climate Model Forecast (with more than a 90 percent probability) to continue through the Fall of 2015, potentially causing a landfall of 10.3 tropical cyclones in the time period.
Consistent with El Niño years, the prediction shows fewer than average tropical cyclone landfalls in the Western North Pacific Basin, especially in the southern part of the region.
“Climate change will continue to impact the fast developing Asia-Pacific region in significant ways,” said James Nash, CEO of Asia-Pacific Region, Guy Carpenter. “We will push forward under the Centre’s mission, as we have since 2009, to understand changing weather patterns and their impact to our communities and our business.”
The briefing compares the GCACIC forecasts for formation and landfall with the 2000-2010 averages from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The GCACIC Regional Climate Model overall, predicts fewer formations and landfalls than the JTWC earlier period averages.
“Climate change will continue to impact the fast developing Asia-Pacific region in significant ways,” said James Nash, CEO of Asia-Pacific Region, Guy Carpenter. “We will push forward under the Centre’s mission, as we have since 2009, to understand changing weather patterns and their impact to our communities and our business.”
In addition, GCACIC also released the sixth annual report presenting the highlights of its research curriculum from the past year. The report details the findings of 18 projects conducted by the GCACIC, which focuses on climate issues in the Asia-Pacific region as well as on a global scale.
