Brazil faces growing terror threat in 2014

Brazil faces an increasing risk of terrorist attacks while the retail sector was the hardest part of the economy hit by such attacks last year, according to analysis by Aon Risk Solutions, which has released its annual Terrorism and Political Violence Map.

Brazil is the only Latin American country to see its risk rating increase from medium to severe in the new analysis, partly due to widespread and large-scale violent anti-government protests throughout 2013. The analysis indicates this unrest will likely continue in 2014, particularly ahead of the FIFA World Cup and the October general elections.

In terms of other parts of the world, Africa remains a continent of high political violence and terrorism risk, with 22 countries having high to severe risk ratings.

Empirically, the Middle East is the region most afflicted by terrorism in the world, with a 28% share of all terrorist attacks recorded worldwide in 2013. A new strain of Salafi Jihadism has emerged in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as evidenced by increased levels of terrorism. This is a cause and effect of the limited political recovery of post Arab Spring countries, and has contributed to widespread high-to-severe risk ratings across the region.

Terrorism remains a variable threat in the Eurasia region, with Russia and Turkey the most affected by the threat through 2013. Additionally, the Winter Olympics in Russia, which will involve significant mass transportation moves, is seen as a potential terrorist target.

Moreover, Japan, Mozambique and Bangladesh have also seen increased scores with Bangladesh witnessing civil unrest over 70 days of strikes and accompanying protests, particularly against low wages and poor working conditions in the garments industry, adding to the issues impacting the retail sector.

The analysis also looked at the threat to different strands of the economy. When looking at attacks on businesses by sector, the retail and transportation sectors were significantly affected in 2013, with 33 percent of terrorism attacks affecting the retail sector, and 18 percent of attacks taking place on the transportation sector.

The retail sector includes venues such as public markets, which remain vulnerable to attack as seen last year in Kenya.

Neil Henderson, head of Aon Risk Solutions’ Crisis Management Terrorism team, said: “The map shows that while the terrorism threat in the West has declined, other regions are witnessing significant increases in terrorist violence and activity.

“Having unrivalled access to regional data and fact-based insight enables our global clients to begin planning ahead of these trends by performing necessary risk identification and consider preventive risk management solutions. This insight allows our clients to plan overseas expansion or international growth and supports them in their efforts to be resilient to a terrorist or political violence threat.”