Cat-4 hurricane Ian eyes Tampa, picks extended path along two coasts

Hurricane Ian gathered force over warm Gulf waters to hit "extremely dangerous" Cat-4 status while bearing down all-too-directly on the twin cities of Tampa Bay and St. Petersburg.

"Ian is expected to reach the coast as an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane," researchers at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in their latest update at 05:00 EDT.

Ian was said to have "jogged a little to the left," but had still dashed any lingering hopes that Tampa might be spared the devastation.

At 05:00 local time, Ian was centred about 75 miles (125 km) WSW of Naples Florida heading NNE at 15 degrees at 10 mph (17 km/h).  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the centre and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

Ian could slow its advance at landfall, worsening already "life-threatening" storm surge conditions and exposing the urban centre to extended hurricane wind and rain conditions.

Maximum sustained windspeeds of 140 mph (220 km/h) will hold through Wednesday (September 28) landfall and Floridians will wait until early Thursday for inland conditions to have slowed winds to ca 80 mph, the forecasts indicate.

Ian looked poised to fulfil the worst of 2022 season fears as it travels over "ocean heat content values that are at the top of the scale and can easily support a major Category 5 hurricane," researchers at the specialist re/insurance broker and advisory BMS wrote in a recent publication.

After landfall, Ian is expected to cross the Florida panhandle before turning north to make a run up the eastern Florida and Georgia coastlines.

Storm surge plus tide will equal flooding across a swathe of normally dry coastland areas, researchers warn. Some areas, chiefly near landfall, might expect as much as 12 to 16 feet in surge, NHC researchers said in a brief 07:00 ET update.

Rainfall levels will likely run 12 to 18 inches in central and northeast Florida with local maxima up to 24 inches. Southern Florida should see a range of 6 to 8 inches and affected east coast regions might pick up 4 to 8.

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