Gallagher sees 9% Q4 renewal premium growth, ‘pretty close’ to 2022 average

Global re/insurance brokerage  Arthur J Gallagher has seen renewal premium growth on P&C business for its clients slow only fractionally to some 9% year on year during the first two months of the fourth quarter and with no sign that the market should let up much into 2023, company officials have said.

“The global P&C environment hasn’t changed much from the last six months,” CFO Doug Howell told his company’s investor day. “Renewal premiums continue to increase across all our major geographies and nearly all product lines around the globe.”

The 9% growth figure, which includes both rate and exposure, remains “pretty close to what we said we were seeing over the previous six months of 2022,” he said.

“I see this continuing well into 2023 and perhaps beyond,” Howell said.

Speaking to just the US market, unit CEO Mike Pesch said he sees “about 7% coming through the book,” with property up 13%, umbrella and general liability up 10% and only D&O showing “a bit more softness”. Property, especially coastal property, remains “challenging”.

Cyber remains “challenging” for clients in the US, but Pesch assures that companies that have acted on security “are starting to see more stability in their cyber pricing,” he noted.

“The market remains rational in terms of its pricing and its view of the risks we are facing and we don’t expect there to be much change heading into the first quarter of 2023.”

1.1 reinsurance renewals, running late amid still-to-be-determined rate hikes, are clogging the primary renewal process. “People are waiting for renewals to get done because they really don't know what their costs are going to be to pass those down the line,” Pesch said.

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