Global modeled catastrophe loss report highlights protection gap: AIR

The global modeled insured average annual loss from catastrophes has reached nearly $100 billion in 2020 - highlighting a large protection gap as well as potential opportunities for the insurance industry, according to AIR Worldwide.

The risk modeler's 2020 Global Modeled Catastrophe Losses report found that one percent aggregate exceedance probability insured loss (or the 100-year return period loss) is nearly $301 billion.

AIR’s report details key loss metrics from AIR’s global industry exceedance probability curve. It derives its loss metrics from the most current suite of global property and crop models from AIR, including new models and updates released during 2020 as well as databases of property values for more than 110 countries. It excludes losses from AIR’s pandemic, cyber, and casualty models.

The global aggregate average annual loss and exceedance probability loss metrics for 2020 reflect changes in risk based on AIR’s annual review of industry insured values around the world.

The report provides both global insured and insurable loss estimates, with the difference between the two figures highlighting areas of potential profitable growth in markets already identified as vulnerable to catastrophic events.

Bill Churney, president at AIR Worldwide, said: “For regions and perils covered by catastrophe models, the protection gap represents not only potential business growth opportunities for the insurance industry to offer essential protection to vulnerable home- and business-owners, but a responsibility to act.”

“Understanding the protection gap can also help governments assess the risks to their citizens and critical infrastructure, and develop risk-informed emergency management, hazard mitigation, and public risk financing strategies to enhance global resilience and reduce the ultimate costs from catastrophic events,” added Churney.

Rob Newbold, executive vice president at AIR Worldwide, said: “With the insight provided by AIR’s global suite of models, companies can pursue profitable expansion in a market that is ever-more connected, and amid regulatory environments that are increasingly rigorous.”