Guy Carp highlights hurricane season uncertainty


While seasonal outlook providers expect below average activity for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, Guy Carpenter has highlighted that preparation is key.

A report by the reinsurance broker examines the factors that influence the severity of any given hurricane season and emphasises that while predictive and historical models can provide guidance, landfalls are always a real possibility and preparation is key for property owners and the re/insurance industry alike.

"The risk of a landfalling hurricane is a serious threat for any tropical season, regardless of seasonal outlooks for the Atlantic Basin at large," said James Waller, research meteorologist for GC Analytics.

"While there is indeed a weak correlation between hurricane counts in the Atlantic Basin and the number of US landfalls, statistical significance is the subject of some debate in the scientific community. Warmer waters in the West Atlantic and Caribbean coupled with the uncertainty surrounding the strength and placement of the impending El Niño, warrant a moment of pause for the 2014 season.

"As history has shown more than once, proper preparation is necessary regardless of basin activity. Preparation for hurricane impacts and the resulting disruption to infrastructure should be an ongoing and essential process for homeowners, businesses, government agencies and the re/insurance industry.

“We continuously emphasise that hurricane landfalls are influenced by large-scale weather circulation at the time of the event, which can surprise even the world's best forecasters. The landfall of one or two hurricanes cannot be ruled out for any season, regardless of predictive models."

Guy Carpenter, Hurricane Season, North America, James Waller

Intelligent Insurer