Guy Carpenter unveils probabilistic flood model for Philippines

Re/insurance broker Guy Carpenter & Company, a business of Marsh & McLennan Companies, has launched a new probabilistic Philippines flood model that will provide countrywide coverage and enable insurers to assess flood exposure in the region.

The enhanced model output will offer modeling flexibility, and produce event-loss tables, occurrence exceedance probability curves, and average annual losses at virtually any level of aggregation. The model is powered by the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework (Oasis LMF), an open-source catastrophe modeling platform designed and built by the re/insurance industry. Outputs can be leveraged using Guy Carpenter’s MetaRisk platform to analyze reinsurance structures and for capital modeling.

Guy Carpenter said the Philippines flood model is based on a 10,000-year stochastic catalogue simulating both fluvial (riverine) and pluvial (rainfall) flooding, including the impact of typhoon-induced precipitation. The fluvial component of the hazard was developed using hydrological and hydraulic modeling to simulate river discharges across the river network in the country. Pluvial flooding is simulated using an in-house methodology accounting for local climate conditions, soil type, land use, and topography.

The model was developed by incorporating data from a number of public and private institutions, including JBA, Intermap and the European Space Agency.

Mark Weatherhead, head of model development of Guy Carpenter, said: “Guy Carpenter has long been a pioneer in flood modeling, one of the costliest but least quantified perils globally. Our Philippines model is the latest in a series of flood modeling tools developed to expand our risk management capabilities in Asia Pacific.”

Bengt Johnsen, head of South East Asia and Korea Region, Guy Carpenter, added: “The Philippines have a long history of devastating flood events, and the combined impacts of climate change and rapid urbanization are aggravating the problem. Our model provides clients with best-in-class capabilities to quantify flood risk and make informed business decisions, both for internal risk management purposes and for the placement of reinsurance.”