1 July 2010 Insurance

Hurricane season will be one to remember

A report has predicted that at least eight hurricanes will form during the 2010 season and that four of these will strengthen to become major events.

These are the findings published by Dr William Gray and Dr Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University, recognised practitioners in the hurricane forecasting field, that update a report issued at the end of 2009.

For this second report, Gray and Klotzbach revisited their original forecasts in the name of improved accuracy, supported by the National Science Foundation and AIG’s Lexington Insurance Company. They used information gleaned largely from studying hurricane cycles of the past 100-plus years.

In a statement explaining the findings of the revised report, Gray said: “While patterns may change before the start of the hurricane season, we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season.”

The cause of concern is the unusually warm surface temperature of the Atlantic ocean, which is in the middle of a warm water cycle. The view, backed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is that this provides the perfect conditions for hurricanes to develop and intensify.

According to the current reports, the US is likely to experience 15 named tropical storms over the next few months. Only storms identified as subtropical storms, tropical storms or hurricanes at the time they are occurring are named.

With major hurricanes capable of reaching wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 kilometres per hour), it’s almost inevitable that the predicted tropical storms will cause serious damage.

“This year has the chance to be an extreme season,” said Joe Bastardi, chief long-range meteorologist at AccuWeather.com. “It is certainly much more like 2008 than 2009 as far as the overall threat to the United States’ east and Gulf coasts.”

It was in 2008 that the world witnessed the destructive power of a hurricane, when Hurricane Ike ripped through Haiti, leaving 800 people dead in its wake. However, Bastardi accurately predicted last year’s Atlantic hurricane season as a year that would be far below average.

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