Nothing as bad for Russia-Ukraine cyber war as a good cease-fire

Nothing could likely prove as bad for cyber claim trends from the war in Ukraine as a good cease fire, the chief of  Verisk’s catastrophic loss estimate unit PCS believes.

To date since the war in Ukraine erupted, Cyber tactics have rendered "a whole lot of nothing" and offers only limited incremental value to military operations as long as the conflict remains hot, the chief of Verisk PCS Tom Johansmeyer told a webinar hosted by the IUMI.

"Cyber risk is more a post-conflict / post-case fire concern," Verisk said in its accompanying presentation.

Cyber warfare is not the easy and obvious conflict choice:  it is not as inexpensive as commonly thought and what has been attempted to date in the conflict "hasn't really stuck." Impacts are quite easily reversed given the cost, so resources are more frequently directed to military capabilities.

"A cease-fire changes all that," Johansmeyer said. "They will be able to operate again."

A cease-fire, perhaps especially a cease-fire borne of grudging stalemate, may additionally put a premium on attempts to destabilise the adversary state, Johansmeyer suggested.

"That is what leads to claims," Johansmeyer said. "That is the risk to think about."