Quiet 2014 hurricane season forecast
The 2014 hurricane season is expected to have a below average number of hurricanes and tropical cyclones, according to an influential industry report.
Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, the tropical cyclone forecast team from Colorado State University, cite two main factors for the forecast of below average activity: likelihood of at least a moderate El Niño developing and cooler-than-average water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean.
The forecast predicts a total of nine named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane during the 2014 season. The median from 1981 to 2010 is 6.5 hurricanes, 12 named storms and 2 major hurricanes.
“We anticipate that the 2014 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have below-average activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. It appears quite likely that an El Niño of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall. In addition, the tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past few months. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the US coastline and in the Caribbean,” explained the team.
