Tropical Cyclone Matmo: landfall imminent
Tropical Cyclone Matmo, located approximately 285 kilometers (175 miles) south of Kolkata, India, is currently tracking north at 13 kph (8 mph), Aon said in a 10am Singapore time cat alert update.
Animated satellite imagery shows a broad area of thunderstorms surrounding the circulation centre with well-defined convective bands wrapping into the core. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has assessed the initial intensity to be 135 kph (85 mph) – 1-minute sustained winds; category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – based on the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates.
Upper-level atmospheric analysis indicates that Tropical Cyclone Matmo is in a conducive environment with very warm sea surface temperature and excellent outflow to the north. The effect of strong vertical wind shear is being somewhat mitigated by the storm motion which is in phase with the direction of the shear. Matmo is tracking north along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge of high pressure located over southeast Asia.
“In the next 18 hours, Cyclone Matmo is expected to turn northeast and make landfall near the border of India and Bangladesh,” said Aon. “A slight weakening is expected just before landfall due to increasing vertical wind shear that offsets the favourable environmental conditions. In 24 hours, strong vertical wind shear and land interaction will rapidly weaken the storm. Between 36-48 hours, a shift in the primary steering mechanism is expected to cause the weakening system to slowly move east and then south over land.”
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