Typhoon Kammuri tracking west at 24 kph (15 mph) – Aon
Professional services firm Aon has reported that Typhoon Kammuri, located approximately 620 kilometers (385 miles) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines, is currently tracking west at 24 kph (15 mph).
Animated satellite imagery shows a developing eye feature surrounded by deep convection wrapping into the centre. The JTWC has assessed the initial intensity to be 170 kph (105 mph) – 1-minute sustained winds; Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – based on the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates.
Upper-level atmospheric analysis indicates that Typhoon Kammuri is in a conducive environment with warm sea surface temperature, low vertical wind shear and excellent outflow in all quadrants. The storm is tracking west along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge of high pressure located to the northeast.
Typhoon Kammuri is expected intensify to 185 kph (115 mph) – 1-minute sustained winds; Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – as it continues on its westward track for the next 12 hours. The storm will make landfall in the Bicol Region, Philippines, shortly after 12 hours. Thereafter, land interaction with central Philippines will steadily decrease the intensity of the storm. An approaching atmospheric feature in the northeast is expected to temporarily erode the above-mentioned steering ridge, allowing the storm to track west-northwest into the South China Sea within 36 hours.
“Results from a majority of numerical models remain in good agreement and therefore, there is high confidence in the near-term forecast,” said Aon. “In the long term, a northeasterly surge is expected to steer Kammuri southwest by the next 72 hours. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear over the South China Sea will cause the storm to rapidly decay and eventually dissipate within 120 hours. There is a large difference in the track speed predicted by various models, lending low confidence to this part of the forecast.”
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