Typhoon Mitag expected to grow in intensity as it moves past Taiwan on a northward track: Aon

Typhoon Mitag has prompted weather warnings in Japan and China as it grows in intensity, tracking northward off the south-southeast coast of Taiwan.

Aon’s cat report predicted a “high” potential that the weather system would make landfall in the next 24 hours and that the centre of the storm would “come in close proximity to the Taiwan coast”.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) said Mitag’s initial intensity was 120 kph (75 mph), making it equivalent to a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (based on the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates).

JTWC said its animated multi spectral satellite imagery revealed a small ragged eye with distinct rain bands.

Aon’s report said that the storm was moving along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge of high pressure, then it will begin tracking northeast.

“While the environment will support slight intensification through the next 24 hours, land interaction with Taiwan is expected to limit the amount of intensification. Before 36 hours, land interaction with coastal China in conjunction with cool sea surface temperature and high vertical wind shear will gradually weaken the system,” Aon said.

However, the proximity of the storm to Taiwan and China means there is high uncertainty in the near-term intensity forecast. But Aon added: “There is reasonable confidence in the near-term track forecast due to good agreement between various numerical model results. Thereafter, increasing uncertainty in model simulations lend poor confidence to the extended portion of the forecast.”

After 72 hours, the typhoon Mitag is expected to transition and become a cold-core low storm as it approaches Japan.

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