AIR launches new severe thunderstorm model for Europe

Catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide has released a new severe thunderstorm model for Europe that will allow for a comprehensive assessment of atmospheric risk in the region.

AIR said the new model captures the effects of straight-line winds and hail, enabling companies to assess their risk from the local scale to the macro level on insured properties, including residential, commercial, automobiles, and specialty lines of business—in 22 countries.

In addition, its simulates the highly localized effects of individual hail and straight-line winds (microevents) — from a meteorological perspective the key drivers of loss from severe thunderstorms—and the spatial extent of macroevents (combinations of microevents). To validate the model, AIR said they used a large set of claims data, including detailed claims from some of the largest insurers in Europe.

“Though typically associated with the summer months, severe thunderstorms can strike Europe at any time of the year, and their loss potential is increasing,” said Eric Robinson, manager and principal scientist, AIR Worldwide. “A severe thunderstorm event can, over the course of several days, produce multiple outbreaks. Depending upon the region, high-frequency severe thunderstorms can contribute up to 50 percent to overall wind-related insured losses in Europe.”

Cagdas Kafali, senior vice president, research and modeling, AIR Worldwide, added: “Because of the localized nature of individual hailstorms and straight-line winds as well as potential for major outbreaks affecting the ever-changing built environment, using historical losses for risk assessment and management is not sufficient. The model was built to meet the wide spectrum of severe thunderstorm risk management needs of all stakeholders, including the insurance and reinsurance industry, and accounts for insurance policy conditions specific to each modeled country.”

Furthermore, AIR announced that it updated its Extratropical Cyclone Model for Europe, including the expansion of the model domain covering a total of 22 countries. The updated model includes support for several new risk types, including large industrial facilities, wind turbines, marine cargo, and builder’s risk.

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