AIR Worldwide expands flood models for Central Europe and UK

Catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide has expanded its inland flood model for Central Europe and coastal flood model for Great Britain.

The model for Central Europe, which features rainfall-runoff modeling and hydraulic modeling of detailed river networks extending more than 250,000 kilometers, has been expanded to include the country of Poland.

Additionally, the risk modeller has updated the storm surge component of its coastal flood model for Great Britain, including all coastal areas of England and Wales. The updated model will now be incorporated into the AIR extratropical cyclone model for Europe to provide a more comprehensive and consistent view of the overall risk.

“The AIR Inland Flood Model for Central Europe is a fully stochastic, event-based flood model designed to support both individual risk selection and portfolio risk management,” said Cagdas Kafali, senior vice president of research, AIR Worldwide. “It covers the effects of precipitation-induced flooding to insurable properties for both on- and off-floodplain locations.

"The model captures many of the complexities inherent in the flood-generation process, such as the space-time patterns of rainfall input; the effects of a highly variable climate, topography, soil type, and other local factors that determine the amount of rainfall drained to the rivers; and the effects of snowmelt and man-made flood defenses on the flood risk. It also accounts for policy conditions with each of the modeled countries.”

Kafali added: “The updated extratropical cyclone model explicitly captures damage and loss associated with winds from large-scale windstorms in 22 European countries. With approximately 10 to 15 percent of coastline less than 5 meters above sea level, the UK is one of the countries in Europe most vulnerable to coastal flooding."

"The new surge sub-peril can capture the effects of storm surge flooding on insured properties on the coasts of England and Wales and help address the wide spectrum of storm surge risk management needs of all stakeholders throughout the insurance and reinsurance industries, while accounting for the insurance policy conditions specific to the modeled regions of Great Britain,” he explained.

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