Allstate tames the cats in July; losses finally track storm counts

US P&C market leader  Allstate escaped the month of July on its lowest nat cat loss since February at roughly one third of the average level suffered over the prior four month nat cat onslaught.

Allstate booked $349 million in gross losses from 18 major events in July which management called "geographically widespread wind and hail events" which were partially offset by favourable reserve revisions for prior period events.

The gross loss is 50% above the July 2022 tally, but that still comes as a major relief on trend. The Q2 tally had been 2.4 times larger than the prior year period, a loss-making quarter which Allstate had already bemoaned for "elevated catastrophe losses."

For July, Allstate nat cat counts started to do a better job of tracking total storm counts than had been visible in Q1.

July total storm counts were up neighbourhood 60% year on year to roughly match the Allstate experience, albeit the total included a doubling of hail occurrences. In Q2, storm counts had been down lightly year on year even as Allstate losses skyrocketed, pointing to the ongoing issues with loss severity.

After prior period reserve adjustments, the July nat cat booking will come to $313 million pre-tax or $247 million after tax.

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