Atlantic hurricane season could yet dash to the finish line: CSU
The Atlantic hurricane season could yet raise eyebrows, with researchers at Colorado State University placing its top bets on above normal activity for what is considered the final two weeks of the season.
“We believe that the next two weeks have the highest probability to be characterized by activity at above-normal levels,” researchers at CSU wrote in their final two-week forecast of the season.
It's getting pretty late in the season, so “above normal” is no longer a synonym for “high”. For the final two weeks in October, “above normal” will be anything above just 8 units of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), a far stretch from the threshold at 27 ACE needed for the mark in early September.
And CSU didn't go Va Banque on its forecast. The “above normal” outlook has a 55% chance of fruition, just ahead of the 40% chance given to a “normal” period with ACE from 1 to 8.
An above normal reading, should one occur, won't have much to do with ongoing Tropical Storm Sean, the season's 19th named event. Sean is “weak and expected to be short lived.”
A system designated 94L has some “robust ensemble support” for intensifying “considerably.” The system is set to head though a “relatively conducive environment” of low to moderate shear, warm surface temperatures and “copious” mid-level moisture, CSU researchers said.
Overall model signals are “relatively unclear” for further system development, but do hint at “potential for additional formation” in the western Caribbean, the chief suspect historically for late-October.
Readings on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a moving circulation pattern that can enhance convective storm activity, may favour storm activity short-term with upper level winds “quite conducive” for storm activity.
"These favourable upper-level winds are one of the reasons why we are forecasting an above-normal two-week period.
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