El Niño falling short: TSR agrees 2023 hurricane outlook ever-rougher
The UK's storm researcher Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) is joining the growing slated of forecasters turning towards expectations of a higher than average Atlantic hurricane season.
TSR upped its forecast for accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for 2023 is up 12% from the early July forecast to 140 points, 15% above the 30-year average.
TSR's July forecast had already been a tightening from its prior grasp of the year at hand. A May forecast had put ACE 35% below the 30-year average.
As elsewhere, TSR frames the season as a tug-of-war between warm surface temperatures and the rising impact of El Niño.
In the current reading, surface temperatures are now seen "warmer than normal" during peak season, versus a "moderate" El Niño.
But the outlook for trade winds are going against what analysts should expect from an El Niño event and now look “neutral or slightly favourable” for storm activity. That element of the mix remains highly uncertain, TSR noted.
Beyond ACE, TSR raised its forecast for total named storms to 18 from 17, including 8 hurricanes, a jump of two from the July forecast. Three of the likely hurricanes could hit category 3 to 5.
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