Flood resilience can’t keep pace with climate change impact: Moody’s RMS
Climate change can drive “material” upside to potential urban flood losses, but with limits on the viability of protection offered by ever-increasing flood defences, a joint study between cat risk modeller Moody’s RMS and UK state flood risk pooler Flood Re.
Climate change will cut the protective value of existing defences and increase event losses, a set of simulations showed. And there's only so much added protective investments can do to stop it.
“Climate change materially increases losses,” authors claimed of results. And “whilst strengthening flood defences can be effective in offsetting additional losses, investment is only cost-effective to a certain level.”
Sides ran simulations on flood event scenarios in two UK cities: the high-density and well-defended York and the lower density by less defended Pontypridd.
Climate change could increase losses on a 1-in-50 year flood by £11 - 20 million in York by 2040, the Flood Re targeted wind-down date, or by £8 - 17 million in Pontypridd, authors said of results.
Additional investments in flood protection can offer a nice benefit early on, but face diminishing returns, authors warned.
To wit: a 50% increase in investment at Pontypridd was said likely to deliver £14 million in loss reduction, while a 100% increase would only yield a further £5.5 million. Diminishing returns were said to be even stronger in York.
Daniel Bernet, Moody’s RMS senior product manager, commented: “The UK is one of the best defended countries in the world for flood risk, however, climate change presents an enormous challenge to defence infrastructure. Our study clearly shows that whilst investment in flood defences has an important role to play, strengthening the flood defence infrastructure is just one solution amongst multiple adaptation measures that will be required to keep the increase in flood risk driven by climate change at bay.”
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