Major Hurricane Otis in Mexico a ‘monumental miss’ by weather models
Hurricane Otis, the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall on Mexico’s Pacific coastline, was a “remarkable and monumental ‘miss’ or ‘bust’ by all weather models that failed to identify the onset and magnitude of its intensification, according to a report by Moody’s RMS.
Moody’s said the failure to predict Otis’ intensification will have had serious implications for preparations and evacuations in Acapulco and the surrounding areas on Mexico’s west coast.
Early on Tuesday, October 24, 2023, some 24 hours before its eventual landfall, Otis was an ordinary tropical storm located off the southwest coast of Mexico.
“Only within 12 hours of landfall did the forecast landfall intensity increase to a Category 4 major hurricane,” Moody’s said.
Otis was expected to remain at tropical storm intensity as it neared the Pacific coast and then move inland over the Mexican state of Guerrero. Instead, it unexpectedly underwent a period of sustained rapid intensification and made landfall in Mexico on Wednesday, October 25, near Acapulco as a Category 5 major hurricane. It had maximum sustained wind speeds of 165 miles per hour (270 kilometers per hour, 145 knots) and a central pressure of 923 hPa, according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC).
“This makes Otis the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall on Mexico‘s Pacific coastline, surpassing Hurricane Patricia which made landfall with winds of 150 miles per hour on October 23, 2015, the report said.
Only when a Hurricane Hunter aircraft was deployed to investigate Otis and provide real-time observations from the heart of the storm, did the true strength of the storm become clear, Moody’s said.
According to the report, “The full extent of the wind, storm surge, and rainfall damage in Guerrero will emerge over the coming days. Nevertheless, Hurricane Otis provides a new data point for studying rapid intensification, and one that will need to be learned from for the future.”
Moody’s MS added: “Its rate of intensification was three times the criteria for ‘rapid intensification’ – a rate only exceeded in the Eastern North Pacific basin by Hurricane Patricia in 2015, a storm that intensified by 105 knots in 24 hours.
“Patricia’s rapid intensification and peak intensity were situated over water, whereas Otis continued to intensify right up to the moment its centre crossed the coastline. The intensification rate of Otis is likely to be among the top ten all-time rates of intensification.”
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