Personal motor insurance market to shrink 70% in mature economies by 2030

The personal motor insurance market in mature economies could be 70 percent smaller in 2030 than it is today due to imminent large-scale  disruption, according to a report by Boston Consulting Group and Morgan Stanley.

The report is based on 45 interviews with senior executives of insurers, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and technology providers and a global survey of motor insurance customers in 11 countries.

An accumulative effect of new mobility, car technology, availability of data, digitisation, regulation, and world economics threatens a significant part of the $200 billion global motor insurance market.

The motor insurance risk pool in mature economies could shrink by as much as 40% by 2030 and 70% by 2040.

Non-traditional players like tech giants, OEMs and telecommunications companies could corner a significant part of the motor insurance market — 55 percent of today's drivers would purchase insurance from a non-traditional player.

There's a strong shift in growth to emerging markets, according to the report. China motor insurance premiums will grow 2.5 times by 2030.

Over time, collisions will increasingly be the fault of the vehicle rather than the driver, meaning product liability will start to replace personal liability, according to the report.