Atlantic could deliver below normal 2023 hurricane season: TSR

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season could deliver a below-average blow of 13 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes as ongoing storm-supportive La Niña conditions fade away, the UK government-supported research venture Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has said.

The TSR 13-storm count forecast would be down from the 2022 count and the 10-year and 30-year averages of 16.3 and 14.4 respectively.

Of those storms, six should hit hurricane status and 3 constitute intense hurricanes of category 3 or above. Both forecasts also fall below the 10-year and 30-year averages.

The six-hurricane scenario is given a probability above 50%, but a seven-hurricane season still has a 40% probability and an eight-hurricane season falls just below 30% probability, researchers showed.

Lower than average storm activity follows TSR's "current expectation that warm-neutral or weak El Niño conditions" will replace the ongoing La Niña event, now in its third season, and likely past its peak and fading.

Researchers call it "extremely unlikely" that ENSO conditions would point to a fourth year of La Niña.

The Atlantic has delivered "near or below average" seasons for the two prior times when La Niña has occurred three times in succession, report authors noted.

Measured as accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), TSR is forecasting a reading of 104, below the 10-year average of 121 and the 30-year average of 122.

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