Hurricane Patricia Updates
October 25, 2015, 7pm
Hurricane Patricia makes landfall; losses limited
Insured losses to onshore properties in Mexico from Hurricane Patricia will not exceed $200 million, catastrophe modelling firm AIR Worldwide has estimated.
Six hours before Hurricane Patricia made landfall in the Mexican state of Jalisco, it was the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in its domain (the Atlantic and East Pacific ocean basins).
Hurricanes cannot sustain such extreme intensity for long and by the time Patricia reached the coast—about 55 miles west-northwest of Manzanillo—maximum sustained winds had fallen from 200 mph to 165 mph.
Still a Category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson wind intensity scale at landfall, however, Hurricane Patricia brought powerful winds, torrential rains, and damaging storm surge to a relatively sparsely populated stretch of the Jalisco coastline.
According to the NHC, Patricia made landfall at around 6:15 pm CDT on Friday, October 23, near the town of Cuixmala in Jalisco state in southwestern Mexico, between the resort city of Puerto Vallarta and the major port city of Manzanillo.
Although the hurricane looked very impressive in satellite imagery prior to landfall, the wind field was relatively small. Category 5 wind speeds extended just 15 miles from the center of the storm and hurricane-force winds extended outward just 35 miles from the eye.
Patricia’s forward speed at landfall was 20 mph and this fast movement helped to limit rainfall accumulation. As the storm moved inland, it began to weaken as it interacted with Mexico’s mountainous terrain, although it was still a Category 3 hurricane five hours after landfall, with sustained winds of 120 mph. The NHC officially downgraded Patricia to tropical storm status on Saturday morning and then to a tropical low a few hours later.
In addition to its record-breaking wind speeds, Hurricane Patricia’s minimum central pressure, at 879 mb, was the lowest recorded in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins, and it also holds the record for the fastest intensifying hurricane, dropping 100 mb in just 24 hours.
Fortunately, Hurricane Patricia did not make a direct hit on the coastal exposure concentrations of Puerto Vallarta or Manzanillo, which experienced much weaker winds and storm surge than were experienced in the vicinity of landfall. The storm also missed the major city of Guadalajara as it tracked inland.
Indications are that damage has not been as severe as had been feared, although a more complete picture will emerge as communications are re-established and surveys are undertaken in mountainous inland locations. In the state of Jalisco, in the area nearest to landfall, roof coverings were peeled off by high winds and damage to non-structural elements such as awnings and signage was common. Dozens of small homes were flattened in the fishing village of Chamela.
According to AIR, some structural damage to homes and businesses occurred as a result of fallen trees; severe damage, however, has been limited. Many roads have been made impassible by debris or landslides, and hundreds of homes have been flooded, primarily in some high elevation locales. Several injuries have been reported, but thus far no fatalities. Mexican authorities had declared emergencies in the three coastal states of Jalisco, Nayarit, and Colima prior to landfall. Resorts in Puerto Vallarta had been evacuated and schools were closed.
In addition to its small radius of maximum winds, the impact of the storm was tempered by the Sierra Madre Occidental Mountains, which shielded the more densely populated coastal exposures from widespread destruction that could have otherwise resulted from a strong Category 5 hurricane. Furthermore, Patricia’s storm surge was limited because of its small size, the short amount of time it spent as an intense hurricane prior to landfall, and unfavorable coastal bathymetry. Emergency preparedness measures and evacuations ahead of the storm also reduced the impact of the hurricane.
It should be noted that the remnants of Patricia are bringing heavy rainfall into Texas and southwestern Louisiana, exacerbating flooding that has been occurring over the last several days.
Friday October 23, 23.30
Hurricane Patricia was a record breaker, confirms AIR
Hurricane Patricia became the most powerful tropical cyclone ever measured in the Western Hemisphere on Friday morning when its maximum sustained winds reached a record-breaking strength of 200 mph (325 km/h), catastrophe modelling firm AIR Worldwide has confirmed.
With a minimum central pressure of 879 mb, it also now holds the record for the lowest pressure of any hurricane on record, passing Hurricane Wilma’s 882 mb in 2005. The intensification rate of Hurricane Patricia was also extremely impressive, having increased an estimated 100 mph in just 24 hours. Only Hurricane Linda of 1997 intensified at this rate within the satellite era.
“Patricia rapidly intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in the past 24 hours,” said Dr. Kevin Hill, senior scientist at AIR Worldwide. “Currently located about 85 miles (135 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, a turn toward the north-northeast is expected later Friday with increasing forward motion. Landfall is forecast to occur Friday afternoon or evening between north of Puerto Vallarta and south of Manzanillo.
“Category 5 winds are presently occurring over a very small area, about 15 miles across, near the center of Hurricane Patricia, though hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Sea surface temperatures are 30-31°C in the vicinity of Patricia, which is several degrees above normal, and ocean heat content—which takes into account how deep warm water extends—is also above normal. These are both typical of a strong El Niño event for this area.”
The centre of Patricia is expected to move quickly north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico after landfall, with the mountainous terrain contributing to rapid weakening.
Dr. Hill continued: “Locations within the hurricane warning area should begin experiencing hurricane conditions during the next several hours, with the worst conditions Friday evening. Tropical storm conditions are already impacting some areas. Damaging winds are expected from Patricia making landfall as a Category 5 hurricane.
“Total rainfall accumulations of 8−12 inches are anticipated, reaching up to 20 inches in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday, meaning the threatened costal region could receive up to 40% of its average annual rainfall in 48 hours. Massive waves of up to 39 feet (12 meters) may occur near the landfall point, contributing to already significant storm surge expectations that will likely cause coastal flooding.”
Mexican authorities have declared emergencies in the three coastal states of Jalisco, Nayarit, and Colima. Schools have been closed and residents are being told to take precautions, including stocking up on supplies, boarding up homes, and moving to higher ground. Evacuations of the resorts in Puerto Vallarta are underway.
Friday October 23, 23.30
Poorly built structures at risk from Hurricane Patricia
Catastrophe modelling firm AIR Worldwide has warned that, in a Category 5 hurricane, many non-engineered and poorly built structures will be destroyed or damaged beyond repair. Wind-borne debris in the hurricane wind field is expected to cause significant non-structural damage to roof and wall claddings of engineered structures, some of which will experience structural damage beyond repair.
Widespread power and communication disruptions are expected from downed trees and utility poles. In addition to wind damage, exposures may be susceptible to damage from flooding, storm surge, and mudslides expected from Hurricane Patricia, especially along the coast.
According to AIR, residential take-up rates in Mexico are low, while commercial take-up rates are significant. Industry impacts will depend on the direction and intensity of Hurricane Patricia at landfall, as well as duration post-landfall, and attention should be paid to the major resort city of Puerto Vallarta and second-largest Mexican city of Guadalajara.
Dr. Kevin Hill, senior scientist at AIR Worldwide, said “The last similar storm to strike near Puerto Vallarta was Hurricane Kenna, a Category 5 hurricane that made landfall in 2002, which caused approximately USD 100 million in damage. Hurricane Odile made landfall as a Category 3 storm in 2014 near the prime tourist destination of Cabo San Lucas, located on Mexico’s southern Baja California peninsula, and caused more than USD 1 billion in insured losses.”
Friday October 23, 18.30
RMS warns of life-threatening flash flooding
Hurricane Patricia is currently a very strong Category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and is forecast to make landfall today, at the same strength, on Jalisco state, western Mexico, with the potential to cause catastrophic damage.
Emily Paterson at RMS’ catastrophe response unit, said: “Expected total rainfall accumulations from Major Hurricane Patricia pose significant threat of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in parts of Mexico and the US.”
RMS has confirmed that Hurricane Patricia has undergone extremely rapid intensification since yesterday. As of 4am CDT this morning, surface winds were estimated to be 175 km and central pressure was estimated to be 880mb,making Patricia the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic or Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, and likely to become the strongest hurricane to hit Mexico’s Pacific coast since 1949.
Jalisco State, where the eye is expected to move onshore, includes the popular coastal resort city of Puerto Vallarta and one of Mexico’s largest cities, Guadalajara (2010 pop. 1.5 million).
Friday October 23, 18.30
The history of Category 5 hurricanes in Mexico
There is only one other Category 5 hurricane known to have made landfall on Mexico’s Pacific Coast in the past – in October 1959, according to RMS. This hurricane took a similar track to Major Hurricane Patricia and caused around 1,800 deaths.
Friday October 23, 18.30
Flooding Implications for US regions
Depending on its track, Patricia may also exacerbate flooding in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. These areas have experienced significant rainfall (up to 6 inches in some parts) throughout the week, creating highly saturated soil conditions, which will be prone to flash flooding and mudslides, according to RMS.
Hurricane Tico, which made landfall in Mazatlan, Mexico in 1983 as a Category 3 storm, also tracked into the southern/southwest US. Affected areas were deluged by as much as 15 inches of rain, causing excessive flooding and one of the most significant rainfall events ever recorded in Oklahoma.
The event that most closely matches Patricia in terms of intensity and track is Hurricane Kenna (2002), which was a Category 5 at one point before weakening to a Cat 4 before landfall. It was the second most intense Pacific hurricane to strike the west coast of Mexico in recorded history, and caused in the region of $100M in economic damages.
