New AIR terrorism model assesses damage from bomb blast attacks

Catastrophe modeling firm  AIR Worldwide has updated its terrorism model for the US to more comprehensively model the extent of damage from conventional bomb blast attacks.

The model enables re/insurers to estimate the potential property, business interruption, workers’ compensation, and personal injury losses that can arise from acts of terrorism in the US.

Starting with the size and location of the bomb, the model propagates the appropriate blast intensity within a built environment from the exterior to the interior of buildings to yield damage and loss estimates, including property damage and workers’ compensation, and personal injury.

A distinctive feature of the model's blast intensity and damage calculation methodology is the explicit consideration of blast intensity propagation in different built environments within a building.

The new model is developed using 3D Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations to ensure more accurate blast intensity propagation reflecting the configuration and proximity of buildings in a variety of urban environments.

Tao Lai, vice president, research at AIR Worldwide, explained: “The amount of damage that occurs at or near the site of an attack depends on a wide variety of factors. In addition to the type of weapon used, the surrounding buildings, building dimensions and blast intensity propagation can have a profound effect on the damage from an attack.”

Lai added: “The threat of terrorism continues to rise and managing risk from terrorism has become an essential part of business. Updates to the AIR Terrorism Model for the United States include enhancements to the modeling of conventional bomb blast attacks. In particular, the updated model can produce a more realistic damage extent for various forms of blast attacks, including the Oklahoma City bombing which was estimated to have had the energy of approximately 4,000 lbs. of TNT and damaged 324 structures within a five-block radius.”

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