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30 August 2019Insurance

Significant Dorian losses to extend cat reinsurance rate rises into 2020, says KBW

As the path of hurricane Dorian shifts, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) now projects that the storm will make landfall in Jupiter (slightly north of West Palm Beach), reaching category 4 strength, and bringing heavy rain, storm surge, and 130 mph winds, all of which are expected to cause sizable losses.

Analysts from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) said that with the generally low Florida primary insurer retentions and increased year to date (YTD) reinsurance purchases “we think a major Florida catastrophe event will significantly impact the reinsurers; domestic primary insurers remain exposed up to their reinsurance attachment points”.

KBW added that “YTD loss creep and potentially significant Dorian losses means that catastrophe reinsurance rate increases and elevated reinsurance demand will persist into 2020”.

They said: “We expect Outperform rated RNR and AXS to benefit from likely increasing reinsurance rates, despite the presumed (but not yet quantifiable) hit to book value from Dorian - and any subsequent - catastrophe losses.”

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More on this story

Insurance
2 September 2019   Reinsurers and alternative capital will bear the majority of losses caused by Hurricane Dorian if the Category 4 storm makes landfall in densely populated areas of the Florida peninsula, warned rating agency S&P Global.
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13 September 2019   The expectation that interest rates are likely to be lower for longer has caused some analysts to cut their earnings forecasts for the industry.
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15 October 2019   Modest core underwriting margin expansion is expected in the domestic P&C insurance industry according to Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) analysts’ newly released 2Q19 P&C Industry Results report. They have updated their domestic P&C insurance industry earnings model with ISO’s recently published 2Q19 results.