NW Pacific may ride La Niña to below-average storm season: TSR
The northwest Pacific may sneak through the 2024 typhoon season on storm activity neighbourhood 25% below the 30-year average as the ENSO cycle continues to ease towards La Niña conditions, the UK government-supported research venture Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has said.
Measured by accumulated storm energy (ACE), an aggregate reading for frequency, duration and severity, TSR has hung its hat on a 225 reading for the 2024 season, neighbourhood 25% below the 30-year average.
TSR gives a 66% chance of an ACE reading in the lower third of the 30-year record, versus only a 10% chance of ending the season in the top third.
“Although sizable uncertainties remain and the forecast skill at this range is historically low, TSR anticipates there is a 73% likelihood that Northwest Pacific ACE in 2024 will be below the 1991-2020 30-year norm,” authors wrote.
Storm season moderation in 2024 is more a matter of reduced severity than frequency, the forecast array suggests.
TSR's early forecast is for 25 tropical storms in the northwest Pacific, of which 15 will hit typhoon status and seven will become intense typhoons.
While the total number of tropical storms is within several percent of 10Y and 30Y averages, forecasts for intense tropical storms and for the seasonal ACE reading come in neighbourhood 25% below the 30Y average and just under 15% below the 10Y average.
TSR claims “moderate confidence” that La Niña will prevail, bringing trade winds and wind shear to dismember storm systems. TSR also noted the presence of a strongly negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with its storm suppressive capacities, but notes that confidence is “low” on forward readings.
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