Risk managers can transform geopolitical chaos into competitive advantage

Geopolitical risk has shifted from being an occasional disruptor to a constant feature in the global business landscape, according to Chris Coppock, head of geopolitical and economic risk analysis at Marsh Credit Specialties.

Speaking to AIRMIC Today, Coppock offered practical guidance on how organisations can navigate today’s volatile environment – and even turn uncertainty into competitive advantage.

Reflecting on the state of the risk landscape, Coppock is clear that while geopolitics may feel uncontrollable, companies are far from powerless. “Businesses often view geopolitics as something beyond their control, but there are achievable steps any organisation can take to manage and mitigate these risks,” he said.

The first, Coppock stressed, is clarity on ownership of geopolitical risk within the business. “Who is responsible for this?” Coppock asked. “Is it the risk manager, the legal team or a dedicated group at the corporate level? Defining responsibility lays the groundwork for developing a resilient risk strategy.”

Coppock outlined several pragmatic approaches to managing geopolitical uncertainties. 

“Though sometimes relegated to a checkbox exercise, effective scenario planning can significantly enhance business resilience,” he explained.

Companies also must move beyond theoretical discussions to actionable insights, and Coppock advocated adopting a geopolitics-first mindset by “integrating geopolitical considerations into investment and strategic decisions”.

Marsh’s Sentrisk Platform is a tool for supply chain visibility, uncovering hidden vulnerabilities and assessing risks ranging from geopolitical disruptions to environmental challenges. 

“These steps might seem basic,” Coppock noted, “but they’re transformative in building a structured, informed approach to risk management.”

Disruption as a positive

Policy shifts – whether related to trade, energy, or global alliances – pose both challenges and opportunities, and Coppock stressed the importance of staying ahead of these changes. 

“Many businesses were caught off guard by political shifts impacting energy transition strategies,” he said. “Building awareness and forming a structured approach to adapt is essential.”

He highlighted the evolving trade architecture, urging businesses to consider long-term implications. “We need to ask ourselves whether today’s trade systems will still be intact in three to five years. Forming a view on this helps businesses anticipate disruptions and prepare contingency plans.”

The intersection of geopolitical risks and climate goals adds another layer of complexity and, in an environment rife with uncertainty, Coppock encourages businesses to adopt a proactive mindset. 

“Periods of disruption are also periods of opportunity,” he said, invoking Winston Churchill’s wisdom: “A pessimist sees risk in every opportunity, while an optimist sees opportunity in every risk.”

Coppock strongly believes businesses that can structure their understanding of risks and respond swiftly will position themselves as market leaders. Tools such as political risk insurance and trade credit insurance can provide a safety net, enabling companies to focus on strategic opportunities.

“This combination of mitigating risks and seizing opportunities differentiates successful businesses in volatile times,” Coppock emphasised.

Despite prevailing narratives about trade disruption, Coppock noted recent developments signalling potential opportunities, such as the UK-India trade agreement and advancements in internal trade facilitation within Canada. 

His key takeaway for businesses is that no one is immune to geopolitical risks. He shared a personal anecdote about a local grocer who faced a 60% spike in egg prices due to global disruptions. 

“Even businesses that appear insulated from global events are affected in ways they might not anticipate,” he noted.

Ultimately, the message is clear: By taking achievable steps, businesses can not only weather the storm but also emerge stronger and more competitive in a world where disruption has become the norm. 

“There is a lot of uncertainty, and we don’t need to continue beating that drum, but amid all the conversations, are you actually taking action as a business? Because there are things that can be done to manage this risk.”

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